The “Late Show with Stephen Colbert” premieres tonight.  Chances are, it’s gonna be awesome.  Don’t use Day One, or even Week One, to make any sweeping judgements about a show’s success or failure.

Daily broadcasting is a grind.  When a show is over, you can’t sit back and say “that was fantastic.”  You have to get to work on making sure the next show (less than 24 hours away!) is just as good if not better.  I’ll give you an example:  in 2010, I was the substitute host of the WGN morning show while the regular host, Greg Jarrett, was recovering from knee surgery.  It was a three week gig, and by week two, I was starting to feel comfortable in my temporary assignment.  One morning felt particularly good.  The guests were great, the phone calls were great.  All in all, a fantastic morning.   That feeling lasted for all of five minutes.  At that point, producer Kristin Decker and I looked at each other and said the same thing:

“Oh shit, what are we going to do tomorrow?”

That’s why I’m not going to make any judgements about “Late Show with Stephen Colbert.”  He and his staff have had the entire summer to prepare for an awesome premiere, and chances are it will show.  He has A-lists guests from the world of entertainment and politics, and I’m sure the producers have a few surprises planned.

Tomorrow, pop culture observers will render judgement.  Colbert’s premiere will either be the greatest show in the history of late night television, or it will be underwhelming, a sign that Stephen doesn’t have what it takes to succeed David Letterman.  There might even be a teary-eyed discussion about how the 30-somethings and 40-somethings hosting late night shows can’t hold a candle to Johnny Carson, the master of the medium.

On October 2, 1962, did the newspaper writers assessing the previous night’s premiere of “The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson” expect the former game show host to hold on to the gig for the next 30 years?  Probably not.   Jay Leno’s “Tonight Show” debut on May 25, 1992 was panned for not packing as much emotional wallop as Johnny’s farewell the previous Friday.  I watched the premiere of “The Colbert Report” in October of 2005.  It exceeded my expectations, but I didn’t see it turning into a cultural and political force.

Johnny Carson became a legend, Jay Leno dominated late night, and Stephen Colbert earned “Late Show” because they were good…..night after night.  They were able to answer the question of “what do we do tomorrow?” consistently and thoroughly.

In fact, a great premiere is a curse, rather than a blessing.  David Letterman’s CBS debut on August 30, 1993 remains one of the greatest broadcasts in TV history:

In fact, his first three weeks were absolutely fearsome.  Day One had cameos from Paul Newman and Tom Brokaw.  By week two, Vice President Al Gore was smashing ashtrays:

You can’t rely on gimmicks every night, and by 1995, Jay Leno’s philosophy of “good food at reasonable prices” won the day….and the next two decades.  The same could be said for Conan O’Brien’s “Tonight Show.”

He came roaring out of the gate in June of 2009.  By summer, he was losing to Letterman, and when Jay Leno decided he had enough of prime time, he hadn’t made a compelling case for NBC to keep him.  Conan O’Brien fought the good fight as the host of “Late Night.” He remained true to himself and his comedic vision, winning over viewers on his creativity and charm.  But he had the luxury of not having to compete.  As Conan was struggling at NBC, David Letterman gave him a tremendous gift.

He selected Tom Snyder to host the show following “Late Show.”

Snyder’s interview program was a carbon copy of “Tomorrow,” which used to follow Carson on NBC.  That meant Conan had the late night comedy franchise all to himself.  If Letterman had selected Jon Stewart to host the show following his, Conan O’Brien might be a trivia question today.

When he started to struggle on “Tonight,” he thought luck, pluck, and charm would eventually win the day just as it did in the mid 90’s.   The only difference was that he had serious competition for the first time ever, and he was unable to adapt in order to “win the day.”

The same thing applies to radio shows.  A radio host will never get more promotion than in the week before the premiere.  He or she will get a five minute segment on the TV morning shows and a couple of newspaper interviews.  The premise is that the hype will get people to tune to your show on Day One and stay there.

Here’s the problem, radio listeners are creatures of habit.  They don’t change the station unless given a good reason to do so.  The only way someone is going to change their habits to accommodate your show is if you’re good..every day…for a long time.  On top of that, the first day of a radio show is often the worst day of a radio show.  The players don’t know their roles, people talk over each other, and the chemistry has yet to be established. Somewhere in the Usenet archives is a post talking about the number of high profile morning shows that were brought into WTMX/Chicago with great fanfare in the early to mid 1990’s.  In 1995, when another Mix morning show flamed out, an Internet program director railed against Bonneville for sticking with the “cheap stopgap replacements” of Eric Ferguson and Kathy Hart.

Eric and Kathy are successful because they deliver the goods….every damn day.

I’ll watch the premiere tonight, because I like Stephen Colbert.  He’s a great entertainer, and he sounds like a quality human being.  But I won’t render judgement on “Late Show” until March.  By then, he’ll be able to answer the question of “what do we do tomorrow?”